Hopefully, we're done.
I wish last week’s interest rate hike was the last one.
Nevertheless, common sense dictates, “Never say never.”
We now must wait for the next inflation and economic growth forecasts due in December and March next year.
Only the March forecast can confirm that we are heading unequivocally and steadily towards our inflation goal.
That is why I cannot rule out the possibility of further rate increases today.
Should the September hike be the last one, we have the answer as to how high it will be necessary to go with rates. This is clearly good news for all the people and all those who plan to borrow money from a bank.
It remains open and unanswered how long it will be necessary to stay with rates at peak levels. The most sincere answer would be: “As long as we are not sure that inflation is undoubtedly heading towards the target despite the ever-present risks.”
It is, therefore, premature to place market bets on when the first interest rate cuts will occur. I understand that this is precisely what the markets are analyzing and betting on today.
Assume we’re (already) at the top. If so, we may have to stay camping here for quite some time and spend the winter, spring and summer here. We will see
At the same time, the end of interest rate hikes opens a debate on whether, and if so, how to adjust our plans with the PEPP and APP purchase programmes. On this one, I would wait to touch the control buttons for the coming six months.
As soon as incoming economic data and analyses confirm that further tightening is unnecessary, I see room for a debate about adjusting the pace of our quantitative tightening. In other words, how quickly will we reduce our bond portfolio accumulated in recent years.
Short and sweet, the next stop is December!