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Macroprudential Commentary
An overview of current trends with an emphasis on cyclical risks. It supports decisions on the setting of the countercyclical capital buffer rate.
Macroprudential Commentary – March 2026
The financial cycle came to the end of its one-and-a-half-year upswing phase at the end of 2025. The subsequent period is expected to see a neutral phase. The current development is characterized by rising uncertainty. In this environment, it is appropriate to maintain the existing countercyclical capital buffer.
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Macroprudential Commentary – December 2025
The financial cycle continues to recover. In the third quarter of 2025, its upswing was driven mainly by the credit market. The ongoing recovery is not associated with an excessive build-up of risks, nor are newly originated loans showing increased riskiness. At the same time, however, the future outlook remains subject to heightened uncertainty. Banks have sufficient capital, and the countercyclical capital buffer rate remains unchanged.
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