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House price growth decomposition
| Date | Deviations | Housing Supply Shock | Housing Demand Shock | Mortgage Supply Shock | Aggregate Funding Shock | Income (AD) Shock | Aggregate Supply Shock | Other Residual Variability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/2006 | 5.490556 | 0.133598 | 1.565514 | 1.221144 | -0.153996 | -0.462170 | 1.667920 | 1.518545 |
| 09/2006 | 1.651798 | 0.071833 | 1.827789 | -0.953540 | 0.021371 | -1.140916 | 1.384800 | 0.440461 |
| 12/2006 | 9.611365 | -0.369904 | 6.065676 | 0.198220 | 0.739996 | -0.303237 | 1.972067 | 1.308547 |
| 03/2007 | 8.972306 | 0.895154 | 4.363802 | 0.135486 | 0.343414 | -0.238389 | 2.142698 | 1.330141 |
| 06/2007 | 14.724413 | 1.446695 | 4.372829 | 3.042843 | 1.115978 | -0.283877 | 3.334911 | 1.695035 |
| 09/2007 | 11.040753 | 0.182431 | 3.344749 | 2.667525 | 0.534516 | -0.011507 | 2.645819 | 1.677220 |
| 12/2007 | 8.757572 | 0.176219 | 3.388710 | 1.657073 | 0.443912 | -0.249193 | 2.261730 | 1.079121 |
| 03/2008 | 5.540404 | -0.002892 | 2.582797 | 1.078222 | 0.374115 | -0.390224 | 1.676721 | 0.221665 |
| 06/2008 | -0.743739 | 0.296896 | 0.326272 | -3.022596 | 0.084567 | -0.266500 | 1.700165 | 0.137457 |
| 09/2008 | -4.315799 | -0.445229 | -0.289078 | -3.604797 | -0.378888 | -0.490969 | 1.551347 | -0.658185 |
| 12/2008 | -6.550411 | 0.046006 | -1.442592 | -3.365694 | -0.922331 | -0.915202 | 1.889221 | -1.839820 |
| 03/2009 | -6.672720 | -0.223094 | -3.584440 | -1.885757 | -1.218490 | -0.207240 | 1.577031 | -1.130730 |
| 06/2009 | -5.790679 | -0.270910 | -2.480582 | -0.945977 | -2.121327 | -0.256861 | 1.065232 | -0.780254 |
| 09/2009 | -3.345827 | -0.809315 | -1.322725 | -0.069627 | -1.246492 | -0.236234 | 0.782193 | -0.443627 |
| 12/2009 | -2.134231 | 0.698598 | -1.721148 | -1.932984 | -0.656393 | -0.021214 | 1.277555 | 0.221356 |
| 03/2010 | -1.115357 | -0.734947 | 0.357992 | -1.112665 | -0.022565 | -0.386099 | 0.806279 | -0.023351 |
| 06/2010 | -0.927431 | -0.094003 | -0.776166 | -1.069876 | 0.178658 | -0.202842 | 0.523020 | 0.513779 |
| 09/2010 | -0.650977 | -0.129930 | -0.344854 | -0.342542 | 0.005829 | -0.528863 | 0.186310 | 0.503072 |
| 12/2010 | -1.187622 | -0.425559 | -1.120114 | 1.057616 | 0.128000 | -0.477995 | -0.430280 | 0.080711 |
| 03/2011 | -1.393618 | -0.179043 | -0.794371 | -0.441613 | 0.034361 | -0.145299 | -0.557846 | 0.690193 |
| 06/2011 | -1.514624 | 0.001711 | 0.220875 | -0.336862 | -0.310872 | -0.217157 | -1.554856 | 0.682537 |
| 09/2011 | -2.566713 | 0.373118 | -0.365941 | 1.274681 | -1.136820 | -0.107161 | -2.816784 | 0.212194 |
| 12/2011 | -1.904688 | -0.084268 | 1.853170 | 0.445813 | -1.595502 | -0.215265 | -2.536761 | 0.228126 |
| 03/2012 | -3.423409 | -0.051164 | 0.192119 | 1.248731 | -2.384191 | -0.222515 | -2.498534 | 0.292145 |
| 06/2012 | -1.751168 | -0.028159 | 0.361890 | 3.057768 | -2.254731 | -0.185563 | -2.537489 | -0.164884 |
| 09/2012 | -1.322176 | 0.371557 | 1.499300 | 0.188983 | -0.959482 | -0.237376 | -2.263559 | 0.078401 |
| 12/2012 | -1.077591 | -0.374560 | 0.334542 | 1.993351 | -0.293003 | -0.128816 | -2.363364 | -0.245741 |
| 03/2013 | -1.112313 | 0.011149 | 1.229188 | -0.453901 | 0.541314 | 0.035202 | -2.323917 | -0.151349 |
| 06/2013 | -0.795043 | -0.035087 | -0.635001 | -0.437949 | 2.295124 | 0.440425 | -2.288689 | -0.133867 |
| 09/2013 | -0.518300 | -0.307913 | 0.734935 | -0.712490 | 0.700839 | 0.721632 | -1.982173 | 0.326869 |
| 12/2013 | -0.981366 | -0.579798 | 0.546876 | -2.748287 | 1.968380 | 1.046874 | -1.264149 | 0.048738 |
| 03/2014 | -0.960891 | 1.019228 | -0.076862 | -1.468167 | 1.437504 | 0.466731 | -1.468536 | -0.870790 |
| 06/2014 | -0.628511 | 0.190980 | -0.484717 | -0.465734 | 0.619701 | 0.672957 | -1.184116 | 0.022418 |
| 09/2014 | -0.083519 | -0.323899 | -1.376654 | 0.626098 | 1.783128 | 0.411788 | -1.337551 | 0.133570 |
| 12/2014 | -0.556931 | 0.213574 | -1.605003 | 0.367647 | 1.179307 | 0.265574 | -1.119197 | 0.141166 |
| 03/2015 | 0.913284 | 0.963884 | -1.477763 | -0.187640 | 1.329974 | 0.426159 | -0.782330 | 0.640998 |
| 06/2015 | 0.903154 | -0.029861 | -1.431322 | -0.843144 | 0.899124 | 0.529006 | 0.326089 | 1.453263 |
| 09/2015 | 1.223026 | -0.341475 | -2.527940 | -0.058009 | 0.751050 | 0.645237 | 1.172568 | 1.581595 |
| 12/2015 | 2.198607 | 0.873610 | -1.207618 | -1.095308 | 0.253691 | 0.598969 | 1.120016 | 1.655247 |
| 03/2016 | 1.021465 | -0.874677 | -1.825223 | 0.851171 | 0.209541 | 0.754889 | 1.066940 | 0.838825 |
| 06/2016 | 1.588588 | -0.402727 | -0.733006 | 0.546604 | -0.574135 | 0.616690 | 1.348771 | 0.786392 |
| 09/2016 | 2.305924 | 0.657111 | 0.887760 | -0.953553 | -0.506804 | 0.638801 | 1.010045 | 0.572563 |
| 12/2016 | 2.167761 | 0.281361 | 0.385675 | -0.405482 | -0.825480 | 0.693882 | 1.404455 | 0.633349 |
| 03/2017 | 2.492256 | 0.143219 | 0.502002 | 0.381629 | -1.219349 | 0.562511 | 1.369437 | 0.752806 |
| 06/2017 | 1.219056 | 0.236509 | -0.207826 | 0.055061 | -0.615115 | 0.641480 | 0.963043 | 0.145905 |
| 09/2017 | 0.793452 | -0.725435 | -0.478814 | 0.032483 | -0.593485 | 0.991772 | 1.188942 | 0.377989 |
| 12/2017 | 0.353672 | -0.274079 | 0.097541 | -0.352757 | -0.500282 | 0.481981 | 1.171390 | -0.270123 |
| 03/2018 | 1.074760 | 0.280912 | -1.067644 | -0.289810 | -0.074582 | 0.482335 | 1.451763 | 0.291786 |
| 06/2018 | 1.442171 | -0.222026 | 0.542356 | -0.549568 | -0.654848 | 0.273845 | 1.447992 | 0.604420 |
| 09/2018 | 2.052719 | 0.162273 | -0.240830 | 0.299308 | -0.614517 | 0.038735 | 2.325428 | 0.082323 |
| 12/2018 | 1.911250 | 0.401327 | -0.043492 | -0.163362 | -0.838594 | 0.322087 | 2.030375 | 0.202911 |
| 03/2019 | 0.831571 | -0.102197 | -0.008747 | -0.678242 | -0.835749 | 0.414259 | 2.432752 | -0.390504 |
| 06/2019 | 1.786644 | -0.072821 | -0.084958 | 0.043102 | -0.553800 | 0.444199 | 1.824256 | 0.186667 |
| 09/2019 | 0.779607 | -0.283860 | -0.060167 | 0.686629 | 0.274838 | 0.071461 | 0.802405 | -0.711698 |
| 12/2019 | 0.523785 | 0.351839 | -0.038542 | 0.501300 | -0.103660 | 0.147315 | 0.379396 | -0.713863 |
| 03/2020 | 2.334056 | 0.037080 | 0.662551 | 1.361863 | 0.236316 | 0.228236 | -0.064926 | -0.127064 |
| 06/2020 | 1.957851 | 0.298493 | 0.022991 | 0.772555 | -0.332654 | 0.889508 | 0.221463 | 0.085494 |
| 09/2020 | 0.467798 | -0.217744 | -0.076812 | 0.504470 | -0.020480 | 0.637303 | -0.181390 | -0.177549 |
| 12/2020 | -0.163142 | -0.357742 | 0.803940 | -0.188009 | -0.221401 | 0.693601 | -0.553654 | -0.339877 |
| 03/2021 | 7.924245 | 0.414162 | 2.721664 | 1.351386 | 0.324693 | 1.121382 | 1.313905 | 0.677054 |
| 06/2021 | 0.219119 | -0.692028 | 1.195051 | -0.093862 | 0.339030 | 0.580202 | -0.380467 | -0.728807 |
| 09/2021 | 2.257536 | 0.377834 | 1.231389 | 1.207551 | 0.410090 | 0.230601 | -1.119488 | -0.080441 |
| 12/2021 | 5.317388 | -0.007823 | 1.843691 | 2.146927 | 0.428523 | -0.026399 | -0.442478 | 1.374946 |
| 03/2022 | 3.447532 | -0.128640 | 2.180731 | 3.025086 | 0.321293 | -0.150274 | -1.702148 | -0.098518 |
| 06/2022 | 4.021451 | 0.060111 | 3.483384 | 1.274481 | 0.412077 | -0.408368 | -1.714894 | 0.914660 |
| 09/2022 | -3.429741 | 0.295237 | 0.662036 | -1.646935 | 0.161554 | -0.190631 | -2.124248 | -0.586753 |
| 12/2022 | -6.251281 | 0.279091 | -0.282523 | -1.794937 | 0.328181 | -0.171193 | -3.026316 | -1.583584 |
| 03/2023 | -7.111204 | -0.593294 | -0.737029 | -1.311591 | 0.709915 | -0.937443 | -2.514168 | -1.727593 |
| 06/2023 | -5.134996 | 0.156212 | 0.210754 | 0.441860 | 0.186859 | -0.707184 | -3.215153 | -2.208343 |
| 09/2023 | -1.907143 | 0.905132 | 0.167388 | 0.789736 | 0.938712 | -0.555971 | -2.019617 | -2.132523 |
| 12/2023 | -1.786818 | -0.153423 | 0.209010 | -0.160579 | 0.329665 | -0.472405 | -0.477785 | -1.061301 |
| Date |
House price growth decomposition
Individual components can be filtered by clicking on the chart legend.
-
Methodology
This chart uses a structural macroeconomic model to decompose the real house price growth into the contributions of individual structural factors. These factors capture the interactions between the main sectors in the housing market: firms that supply housing, households that demand housing, banks that provide mortgage credit, and, finally, the macroeconomic (income developments, commodity prices, productivity, external sector) and macroeconomic policy (monetary, fiscal, and structural) environment.