NGFS Climate Scenarios, Long- and short-term

The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and the European Central Bank would like to invite you to the launch event of Phase IV of the NGFS Climate Scenarios, as well as a session on the NGFS conceptual work on short-term scenarios.

The NGFS Long-term Climate Scenarios have been developed to provide a common starting point for analysing climate risks to the economy and financial system. Since the last iteration, the scenarios have been brought up to date, including country-level commitments until March 2023. Reflecting climate policy delays and the energy crisis following the war in Ukraine, the orderly scenarios have now become more disorderly and take into account the limitation of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies use. Furthermore, the acute physical risk modelling has been enhanced and further enriched by including more hazards and increased geographical granularity. Two new scenarios have also been developed to capture more and less adverse futures.

This year, the NGFS also published a conceptual note on Short-term Climate Scenarios, providing initial narratives and a roadmap of the analytical work it will undertake. Short-term scenarios are a significant step forward for central banks and supervisors to better understand the near-term macro-financial impact of transitioning to a net zero economy, including the consequences of severe natural disasters. Five different climate scenario narratives are proposed to underpin the short-term dynamics associated with various transition and physical impacts.

Sabine Mauderer (Vice-Chair of the NGFS; Member of the Executive Board, Deutsche Bundesbank) will introduce the session.

Livio Stracca (Chair of the NGFS workstream on Scenarios Design and Analysis; Deputy Director General, Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy, European Central Bank) and his team will present the scenarios, along with the consortium of scientists and modellers who help produce them. A Q&A session will conclude the webinar.

The event will be hosted on Webex and the joining link will be sent to registrants via e-mail the day before the event.