Analytické štúdie (Policy Briefs)

Increasing energy prices represent one of the main drivers of the recent increase of HICP inflation to double-digit figures. In this Policy Brief we focus on the first-round effects of increased energy prices on Slovak firms. Our results based on firm level data suggest that increasing energy prices may have a significant direct impact on the profitability of many firms. Without adjusting their prices, the number of firms reporting losses could increase substantially as a result of energy price increases. Moreover, almost all firms with high energy costs would end up with a loss. Therefore, we assume firms transmit increased energy costs to producer prices. The direct effect may reach up to 8% in some sectors to compensate for higher input costs if energy prices double. As energy intensive industries are important suppliers to other domestic industries, we may also expect significant upward second-round effects on producer prices and ultimately increasing consumer prices.